Monitor validation status¶
SCPN Phase Orchestrator ships dozens of dynamical monitors. Only one of them has been checked against an independent ground truth. This page states, per monitor family, how much external evidence it carries — so a broad gallery is never mistaken for a broad set of field-ready detectors.
The classification is machine-readable: every monitor carries a
MonitorValidationStatus
you can query with
validation_record().
It restates the repository README's own Evidence status table verbatim in
structured form, so it cannot quietly overclaim.
The three tiers¶
| Tier | Token | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Externally validated | external |
Clears a matched-false-alarm operating point and a permutation significance test on independent real data. |
| Synthetic-only | synthetic-only |
Recovers an analytic or planted ground truth on synthetic data, yet is at chance on real data under the same honest test. |
| Research | research |
An exploratory diagnostic with no external- or synthetic-reference validation record. The conservative default. |
Today the registry holds 2 externally-validated, 6 synthetic-only, and 31 research-tier monitors.
Externally validated (real-data evidence)¶
These are the only monitors with field evidence. Both are the grid modal-growth detector — the one place a detector clears the honest bar, because the signature is a physically deterministic growing mode.
| Monitor | Basis |
|---|---|
Grid modal envelope-growth detector (grid_modal_growth) |
Leads 36/90 real PSML growing-instability transitions at permutation p = 0.0001 (held-out 24/45, p = 0.0002); the eigenvalue growth rate is a checkable physical quantity. |
Grid modal-growth streaming monitor (grid_modal_stream) |
The certified detector re-certified for causal streaming on the real PSML corpus with a hash-sealed operating point. |
Synthetic-only (analytic ground truth; at chance on real data)¶
These recover the analytic eigenvalue on the synthetic transition suite but are demonstrated at chance on real data — SPO reports that rather than overclaiming.
| Monitor | Basis |
|---|---|
Critical slowing down (critical_slowing_down) |
Generic early-warning member (rising variance and lag-one autocorrelation); at chance on real data in all four domains. |
Rising synchronisation (synchronisation) |
Generic early-warning member (robust z-score of the Kuramoto order parameter). |
Ordinal-pattern transition entropy (opt_entropy) |
Generic early-warning member (ordinal-pattern transition entropy of the phase field). |
Ensemble early warning (ensemble_warning) |
Weighted fusion of the generic suite; inherits its synthetic-only posture. |
Domain-adaptable early-warning suite (early_warning_suite) |
The neutral-observable harness hosting the generic members; no member reaches significance on real data. |
Inter-area oscillation modes (matrix pencil) (oscillation_modes) |
Matrix-pencil modal damping recovers a planted growth rate exactly on synthetic data, yet on short real windows is at chance. |
Research (no validation record)¶
The remaining 31 monitors are exploratory diagnostics. They may be useful, but they carry no external- or synthetic-reference validation record and must not be treated as field-ready detectors. Query their status directly:
from scpn_phase_orchestrator.monitor import (
MonitorValidationStatus,
monitors_by_status,
)
for record in monitors_by_status(MonitorValidationStatus.RESEARCH):
print(record.monitor, "—", record.basis)
In one line¶
SPO is a synchronisation-dynamics and honest-evaluation toolkit whose one externally-validated detection niche is grid modal damping against eigenvalues. Everything else is synthetic-only or research. See the validation-status API for the full machine-readable registry.