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IBM Phase 2 B-C Scaling Manifest — 2026-05-05

This manifest preregisters the next continuation run after the completed reduced A+G replication. It is limited to scaling blocks B and C only.

Status

Field Value
Status Preregistered; not submitted at document time
Backend ibm_kingston
Approved blocks B (n=6) and C (n=8)
Deferred blocks A, D, E, F, G
New readout baseline none; reuse completed A+G same-day n=6,8 readout controls
Dry-run command PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 /home/anulum/.local/bin/python scripts/phase2_full_campaign_ibm.py --dry-run --backend ibm_kingston --skip A D E F G
Live command PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 /home/anulum/.local/bin/python scripts/phase2_full_campaign_ibm.py --confirm-promo-active --backend ibm_kingston --skip A D E F G --max-live-depth 900

Scientific purpose

This run tests whether the DLA parity asymmetry observed and replicated at n=4 survives at n=6 and n=8.

It can validate:

  • early system-size scaling of the parity-sector asymmetry;
  • whether the middle-depth sign remains positive beyond n=4;
  • whether the depth window shifts or narrows with system size.

It can falsify:

  • a simple scalable-parity interpretation if n=6 and n=8 lose the sign;
  • a monotone scaling story if the effect is present at one size but absent at the other;
  • any claim that Phase 2 already established n=6-12 scaling.

Circuit inventory

Block n Depths Sectors Reps Shots Circuits
B 6 4,8,14,20 even, odd 20 4096 160
C 8 4,8,14,20 even, odd 15 4096 120
Total 6,8 preregistered above even, odd mixed 4096 280

Dry-run result on 2026-05-05:

Metric Value
Circuits 280
Simulator ISA depth min 65
Simulator ISA depth max 269
Simulator ISA depth mean 160.1
Simulator gate-count min 198
Simulator gate-count max 1396
Simulator gate-count mean 670.7

The live command must pass the pre-submit backend-transpilation gate before any IBM job is submitted. The live max-depth guard is 900; if exceeded, the script must abort without submission.

Promotion rules

The run is not promoted until all gates below pass:

Gate Requirement
Raw counts 280 B-C circuits with 4096 shots each.
Job binding Every circuit is bound to an IBM job identifier.
Reproducer scripts/analyse_phase2_scaling_bc.py recomputes all published values from raw counts.
Integrity Raw JSON and summary JSON have SHA-256 hashes recorded in data/phase2_scaling_bc/README.md.
Ledger Hardware ledger names the exact artefacts and scope.
Scope Promote only n=6,8 scaling evidence; no D-E, GUESS, broad advantage, frontier, or multi-QPU claim.

Expected interpretation

Positive result: same-sign asymmetry at n=6 and/or n=8, especially at middle depths, supports early scaling beyond n=4.

Null result: constrains the claim to n=4 replication and marks larger-size scaling as unestablished.

Mixed result: identifies a size/depth window and should be reported as such.