GOTM-SCPN Paper 0 First Preregistered Downstream Experiment¶
Status: preregistered no-QPU measured-system design, dated 2026-05-19.
This document selects the first downstream experiment from the GOTM-SCPN Paper 0: The Foundational Framework pathway. It is a preregistration contract, not a result report. It does not claim physical validation, biological validation, quantum advantage, or hardware readiness.
Selected lane¶
| Field | Preregistered value |
|---|---|
| Lane family | K_nm causal-efficacy and coupling-affinity |
| Evidence class before execution | measured-system candidate |
| Primary system | EEG alpha PLV eight-channel coupling candidate |
| Cross-domain negative control | IEEE 5-bus power-grid sparse coupling candidate |
| Source programme | GOTM-SCPN Paper 0: The Foundational Framework downstream pathway |
| Registry evidence | docs/paper0_lane_registry.md; data/paper0_lane_registry.json |
| Existing gap contract | docs/internal/audits/contracts/knm_physical_validation_contract_2026-04-30.md |
| Hardware status | no QPU submission; no hardware execution; no IBM spend |
Scientific question¶
Can the repository's K_nm coupling construction produce a reproducible, unit-aware, uncertainty-aware measured-system replay that distinguishes a plausible coupling-affinity candidate from a sparse negative-control topology without promoting topology correlation into physical magnitude validation?
Hypotheses¶
| ID | Statement | Promotion boundary |
|---|---|---|
| H1 | The EEG alpha PLV candidate will retain positive rank-order association with source-derived K_nm coupling after the preregistered normalisation and uncertainty model are applied. | Rank-order association is not physical magnitude validation. |
| H2 | Direct magnitude error will remain non-closing unless scale, units, and uncertainty pass the acceptance gates below. | Magnitude validation remains blocked if any gate fails. |
| H3 | The IEEE 5-bus negative-control candidate will not satisfy the same acceptance gates under the same replay procedure. | Failure of the negative control only supports specificity of the replay protocol, not broad validation. |
Inputs¶
Required committed inputs:
docs/internal/audits/contracts/knm_physical_validation_contract_2026-04-30.mddata/public_application_benchmarks/data/knm_physical_validation/measured_couplings_power_grid_ieee5bus.jsondocs/paper0_experimental_pathway.mddocs/paper0_lane_registry.md
The EEG candidate currently appears in the K_nm physical-validation contract as
eeg_alpha_plv_8ch. The power-grid candidate appears as
ieee5bus_power_grid. Both are pre-existing candidates and remain non-closing
until this preregistered replay is implemented and evaluated.
Locked analysis plan¶
- Load the K_nm candidate audit rows from the existing physical-validation artefacts.
- Build a measured-edge table for the EEG alpha PLV candidate with explicit units, normalisation, and uncertainty fields.
- Re-run the same table schema for the IEEE 5-bus negative-control candidate.
- Compute rank-order association, direct magnitude error, and best scale-through-origin error for both candidates.
- Run null models that preserve node count and edge-density class.
- Emit a machine-readable replay artefact and a Markdown report.
- Keep the K_nm physical-validation gap open unless every acceptance gate passes.
Acceptance gates¶
| Gate | Pass condition | Failure consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Named system | Candidate row names a concrete measured system and data provenance. | Block measured-system promotion. |
| Units | Every measured edge records units or a documented dimensionless convention. | Block magnitude claims. |
| Normalisation | Normalisation from measured coupling to K_nm comparison space is explicit and reproducible. | Block magnitude claims. |
| Uncertainty | Every measured edge records uncertainty or a conservative uncertainty model. | Block magnitude claims. |
| Pairwise coverage | Required pairwise edges are either measured or explicitly censored with a rule. | Block full-system claims. |
| Null models | Null replay rows are generated under fixed random seeds and topology constraints. | Block specificity claims. |
| Negative control | IEEE 5-bus candidate is evaluated under the same procedure. | Block cross-domain specificity claims. |
| Reproducibility | JSON and Markdown replay artefacts are regenerated by a command. | Block publication use. |
Falsifiers¶
The experiment fails to promote beyond measured-system candidate if any of the following occurs:
- the EEG candidate lacks explicit units or a defensible dimensionless convention;
- uncertainty is missing for measured edges;
- the negative-control candidate passes the same acceptance gates with equal or better evidence;
- null models match or exceed the candidate association metrics;
- direct magnitude error remains unconstrained after scale and uncertainty are applied;
- any replay artefact cannot be regenerated deterministically.
Claim boundary¶
A passing replay may support only this bounded statement:
The preregistered K_nm measured-system replay is reproducible for the named candidate under the declared units, uncertainty, null-model, and negative- control gates.
It may not claim that GOTM-SCPN Paper 0: The Foundational Framework is externally validated. It may not claim broad K_nm physical validation, quantum advantage, biological truth, or hardware/QPU readiness.
Required implementation artefacts¶
The next implementation slice should add:
| Artefact | Purpose |
|---|---|
scripts/run_paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.py |
Deterministic no-QPU replay command. |
data/paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.json |
Machine-readable replay result. |
docs/paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.md |
Human-readable replay report. |
tests/test_paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.py |
Acceptance-gate and falsifier tests. |
scpn-bench paper0-knm-preregistered-replay-gate |
Release-safe reproducibility gate. |
Hardware boundary¶
No QPU execution is part of this preregistration. Additional IBM or hardware shots cannot close this measured-system coupling-magnitude gap unless the claim is explicitly changed to a backend-device coupling-map claim with calibration provenance.
Implemented replay gate¶
The preregistered design is now bound to a deterministic no-QPU replay gate:
scripts/run_paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.pyscripts/compare_paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.pyscripts/run_paper0_knm_preregistered_replay_gate.pydata/paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.jsondocs/paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.mdtests/test_paper0_knm_preregistered_replay.pyscpn-bench paper0-knm-preregistered-replay-gate
The replay is intentionally non-closing. It preserves the primary EEG alpha PLV uncertainty blocker, exercises the IEEE 5-bus negative control, adds a deterministic permutation-null battery for matrix-alignment diagnostics, records input SHA-256 digests for replay provenance, emits an explicit do-not-promote decision object, and keeps QPU submission blocked until measured coupling magnitudes with uncertainty are available.